“We are the ancients”: How our actions today impact the survival of humanity

Do you ever lie awake at night thinking about how to address existential threats facing humanity? Stressing just a bit over the kind of world that our children, grandchildren, great-grandchildren, etc., will inherit from us? Same, friend. Same.

Inspired by philosophers Toby Ord (“The Precipice”) and Will MacAskill (“What We Owe the Future” and “Doing Good Better”) let’s talk about longtermism and existential threats.

What is longtermism and does the future matter?

Longtermism is a philosophy that emphasizes the importance of taking action today to positively influence the long-term future. It is the idea that thinking about and influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time.

How long is long? Think centuries or even millennia—far beyond the lifetime of anyone we have ever met. We’re talking about the survival of greater civilization and humankind.

“If humanity survives to even a fraction of its potential life span, then, strange as it may seem, we are the ancients: we live at the very beginning of history, in the most distant past. What we do now will affect untold numbers of future people. We need to act wisely.”

— Toby Ord "The Precipice"

The goal of longtermism is to ensure that humanity's potential for flourishing over its lifespan is maximized. This involves taking seriously just how big the future could be and how high the stakes are in shaping it. Even with 300,000 years of humanity behind us, we very well may be the ancients for untold generations of humans.

Even more critically, to me at least, longtermism also involves recognizing and valuing the lives of humans that we will never know. It means extending a sense of compassion to future ancestors just as we fight for and love our contemporary families who remain within arm’s reach. This expansion of idea of what humans are worth protecting is key. And damn hard.

Wading through existential risks

Existential threats are risks that have the potential to cause the permanent collapse of human civilization or even the extinction of our species. These threats can arise from a variety of sources, including natural disasters, pandemics, nuclear war and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI). If left unaddressed, these threats could have catastrophic consequences for future generations—which sounds decidedly not great for future us.

As members of a divided and stressed society, it is challenging to think about these devastating potentials, especially as we have so many contemporary pressing issues to contend with. It’s important to remember that these large-scale threats could instantly wipe out ALL of our progress.

“We must prioritize future positive outcomes so our hard work today is not done in vain.”

— Me

In order of which existential threats are currently stressing me out the most, some examples:

Who the hell even knows? There are probably things we don’t even know to be concerned about yet that mankind will need to tend to. Sigh.
Climate change
Artificial intelligence (AI)
Pandemics
Nuclear war

Each of these threats carries with it the potential to cause widespread devastation, political instability/dystopian society, the crippling of civilization as we know it and a horrific loss of life/extinction. Best to plan now and mitigate soon than wait for a hurting planet to scramble and attempt to solve these potential horrors.

Pitfalls and roadblocks of longtermism

While longtermism offers a compelling framework for addressing existential threats, numerous roadblocks must be overcome. These include:

Short-term thinking
On some level, it makes sense that we would focus our resources on solving what feels like the most pressing issues that occur in our lifetime, in our communities and perhaps even connected to our own families and habitus. One approach to fighting this ‘now-centric’ point of view is by educating folks on how short-sighted short-term thinking really is. Taking the approach of highlighting the potential consequences of inaction and laying out incremental gains by taking any action for the future is key.

Lack of awareness and fear of the complex
Longtermism is a complex philosophy that requires a deep understanding of the potential risks and benefits of different actions, which can be difficult for many people to grasp. The scale and scope of this work is tremendous, which is where breaking the complex into smaller, simplified pieces plays a great service. The idea of spoon-feeding big, scary topics is a smart one: break it down, make it feel manageable, offer guidance on real contributions and build a network of trusted advocates who can communicate out and work together on existential risks.

Political polarization
Consensus building is a challenge regardless of how long or short-term a scope of work is. Bipartisan support is key and, over time, can happen by skillfully engaging folks across the political spectrum to find common ground related to existential risks. What’s particularly challenging in this political moment is that so many social issues are framed as “existential”—those engaged in longtermist work would be wise to pay attention to how to break down these pernicious political divides driven by extremism.

Lack of funding
Economic barriers are real when engaged in such big work and many organizations working on longterm solutions struggle to secure continuous resources needed to make real progress. To overcome this barrier, raising awareness about the importance of long-term thinking and the potential benefits of investing in research and development is essential. This can involve engaging with policymakers, philanthropists and other stakeholders to build support for long-term solutions and secure funding for critical projects.

Real-world actions for positive long-term change

Despite these hefty challenges, there are concrete actions that individuals and organizations can take to promote positive change in the face of existential threats.

Believe in the possibility of change - but don’t take it for granted
Moral change is possible through education, re-thinking social norms and political action. Likewise, moral regress is a total possibility too. Progress is not inevitable and we could lose generations of advances over a period of stagnation or through an existential risk.
Advocate for policy change
Individuals can advocate for policy shifts that address climate change or nuclear disarmament, among other issues. This may involve contacting elected officials, participating in protests or rallies, or supporting advocacy organizations.
Invest in research and mitigation
To focus on just one threat as an example, as artificial intelligence continues to advance it is important to ensure that AI is developed in a way that is safe and beneficial for humanity. The more we conduct research on a threat like AI safety, the more that individuals and organizations can help mitigate potential risks associated with it. The time is now.
Educate others about the future and our role as the ancients
The best way to build awareness and shift perceptions is through strong relationships and candid conversations. As you begin to care and learn more about longtermism and the good/bad/ugly our future may held, share that knowledge persistently and consistently.

We are in it for the long-haul

Longtermism offers a compelling framework for addressing existential threats facing humanity. By taking action today to positively influence the long-term future, we can all help ensure that future generations inherit a world that is safe, just and flourishing.